AFL Elo ratings

Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings. This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position. You can read more about Elo ratings here.

Rank Team Elo rating
1 Brisbane Lions 1746
2 Fremantle 1720
3 Sydney 1711
4 Geelong 1703
5 Carlton 1681
6 Adelaide 1640
7 Hawthorn 1624
8 Melbourne 1604
9 Western Bulldogs 1602
10 Collingwood 1583
11 Gold Coast 1417
12 Greater Western Sydney 1396
13 St Kilda 1393
14 North Melbourne 1369
15 Port Adelaide 1349
16 Richmond 1190
17 Essendon 1147
18 West Coast 1115
This data is current as of the end of West Coast v Hawthorn (round 24) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Carlton, Western Bulldogs
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
  • Melbourne (39 %) vs Carlton (61 %) → Tipping Carlton
  • Western Bulldogs (53 %) vs Collingwood (47 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs
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