Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings.
This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position.
You can read more about Elo ratings here.
| Rank |
Team |
Elo rating |
|---|
| 1 |
Sydney |
1741 |
| 2 |
Hawthorn |
1738 |
| 3 |
Fremantle |
1718 |
| 4 |
Brisbane Lions |
1632 |
| 5 |
Geelong |
1614 |
| 6 |
Collingwood |
1577 |
| 7 |
Gold Coast |
1570 |
| 8 |
Adelaide |
1555 |
| 9 |
Western Bulldogs |
1529 |
| 10 |
Melbourne |
1527 |
| 11 |
St Kilda |
1490 |
| 12 |
Greater Western Sydney |
1453 |
| 13 |
Port Adelaide |
1410 |
| 14 |
North Melbourne |
1379 |
| 15 |
Essendon |
1290 |
| 16 |
Carlton |
1264 |
| 17 |
Richmond |
1255 |
| 18 |
West Coast |
1248 |
This data is current as of the end of Gold Coast v Greater Western Sydney (round 8) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, Adelaide
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
- Fremantle (47 %) vs Hawthorn (53 %) → Tipping Hawthorn
- Brisbane Lions (89 %) vs Carlton (11 %) → Tipping Brisbane Lions
- Port Adelaide (33 %) vs Western Bulldogs (67 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs
- North Melbourne (11 %) vs Sydney (89 %) → Tipping Sydney
- Greater Western Sydney (72 %) vs Essendon (28 %) → Tipping Greater Western Sydney
- Gold Coast (61 %) vs St Kilda (39 %) → Tipping Gold Coast
- Geelong (55 %) vs Collingwood (45 %) → Tipping Geelong
- Melbourne (83 %) vs West Coast (17 %) → Tipping Melbourne
- Richmond (15 %) vs Adelaide (85 %) → Tipping Adelaide