Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings.
This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position.
You can read more about Elo ratings here.
| Rank |
Team |
Elo rating |
|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle |
1842 |
| 2 |
Brisbane Lions |
1695 |
| 3 |
Sydney |
1679 |
| 4 |
Geelong |
1676 |
| 5 |
Adelaide |
1642 |
| 6 |
Hawthorn |
1618 |
| 7 |
Collingwood |
1615 |
| 8 |
Carlton |
1587 |
| 9 |
Melbourne |
1578 |
| 10 |
Western Bulldogs |
1519 |
| 11 |
Greater Western Sydney |
1477 |
| 12 |
St Kilda |
1470 |
| 13 |
North Melbourne |
1400 |
| 14 |
Port Adelaide |
1344 |
| 15 |
Gold Coast |
1290 |
| 16 |
Richmond |
1225 |
| 17 |
Essendon |
1189 |
| 18 |
West Coast |
1145 |
This data is current as of the end of Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn (round 22) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Fremantle, Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney, Collingwood, Carlton
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
- Melbourne (18 %) vs Fremantle (82 %) → Tipping Fremantle
- Sydney (87 %) vs Port Adelaide (13 %) → Tipping Sydney
- Geelong (94 %) vs Essendon (6 %) → Tipping Geelong
- Adelaide (92 %) vs Richmond (8 %) → Tipping Adelaide
- Greater Western Sydney (75 %) vs Gold Coast (25 %) → Tipping Greater Western Sydney
- West Coast (6 %) vs Collingwood (94 %) → Tipping Collingwood
- St Kilda (34 %) vs Carlton (66 %) → Tipping Carlton