AFL Elo ratings

Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings. This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position. You can read more about Elo ratings here.

Rank Team Elo rating
1 Fremantle 1845
2 Sydney 1748
3 Adelaide 1704
4 Hawthorn 1651
5 Geelong 1616
6 Western Bulldogs 1601
7 Brisbane Lions 1574
8 Carlton 1541
9 Melbourne 1512
10 St Kilda 1485
11 Collingwood 1473
12 North Melbourne 1448
13 Gold Coast 1428
14 Greater Western Sydney 1423
15 Port Adelaide 1309
16 Richmond 1250
17 West Coast 1242
18 Essendon 1140
This data is current as of the end of Collingwood v Port Adelaide (round 15) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
  • Richmond (24 %) vs North Melbourne (76 %) → Tipping North Melbourne
  • St Kilda (34 %) vs Western Bulldogs (66 %) → Tipping Western Bulldogs
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