AFL Elo ratings

Elo ratings for the 2026 AFL season, based on my bespoke algorithm using custom k-values and seeded with the last few seasons of data at custom weightings. This is a predictor of real team strength, and may be a more accurate representation than their ladder position. You can read more about Elo ratings here.

Rank Team Elo rating
1 Fremantle 1771
2 Sydney 1752
3 Hawthorn 1685
4 Geelong 1659
5 Brisbane Lions 1643
6 Gold Coast 1608
7 Western Bulldogs 1563
8 Adelaide 1555
9 Collingwood 1532
10 Melbourne 1527
11 Greater Western Sydney 1481
12 St Kilda 1451
13 Port Adelaide 1377
14 North Melbourne 1368
15 Essendon 1262
16 Richmond 1255
17 Carlton 1253
18 West Coast 1248
This data is current as of the end of Geelong v Collingwood (round 9) - data is usually updated within an hour of each game ending
If you're using this data to do some Elo-based tipping, here are the quick tips for the remaining games this round:
Melbourne, Adelaide
Note: these tips are based on the Elo ratings and do not take into account any other factors such as injuries, form, etc.
  • Melbourne (83 %) vs West Coast (17 %) → Tipping Melbourne
  • Richmond (15 %) vs Adelaide (85 %) → Tipping Adelaide
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